Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
