Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".