A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
